The Cavs are 15-4 at home, 11-10 on the road.
Last season, the Eastern Conference champions paired a top-flight offense with a lethargic, underperforming defense--nearly setting franchise records on both sides of the court for offensive excellence and defensive futility. Even with some personnel changes this season, the stats and eye test show a team who has some of the same talents and flaws as last year.
While ranking 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 113.3 points per 100 possessions, the Cavs rank 27th in defensive efficiency at 111.2 points per 100 possessions.
Based on what I have seen, the Cavs have more overall potential as a team on both sides of the court this season in comparison to last season, but they continue to work on establishing rotational roles because of all the offseason and early-season injuries. Hence, it will take some time for all of that potential to show.
On offense, players like Dwyane Wade, Jeff Green, and Jose Calderon have really helped LeBron with keeping the ball moving around for good shots. The Cavs are tied for 5th in field goal percentage (47.5%), including 4th in 3-point percentage (37.9%). They are also tied for 7th in assists per game at 23.5 APG after ranking 13th and tied for 13th in each of the last two seasons at 22.7 APG and ranking 10th in 2014-15 at 22.1 APG. If he can stay healthy, Isaiah Thomas presents the versatility of inside/outside scoring and has previously developed a reputation in Boston for keeping his teammates engaged during plays through driving around screens and passing to open cutters. However, it should be noted that IT has similar career assist numbers to Kyrie Irving, and LeBron remains the top assist man on the Cavs.
On defense, Wade, Green, Jae Crowder, and Cedi Osman were critical additions as capable wing defenders. Meanwhile, Calderon and Kyle Korver have stepped up their D in comparison to their performances over the past couple seasons. However, the Cavalier defense has fallen apart in some games, such as Monday night's blowout loss in Minnesota.
With all this said, Coach Lue has some decisions to make with the evolving Cavs rotation. The returns of Tristan Thompson and IT have already made the rotation picture blurry, with Calderon, Osman, and Channing Frye all losing minutes despite playing fairly well in extended minutes during a 19-2 stretch (including the Cavs' 13-game winning streak, which tied a franchise record). With Iman Shumpert and Derrick Rose expected to return soon (each of whom started at point guard prior to Calderon's extended run and before IT's return), players will need to check their egos at the door as there won't be enough minutes to go around for everyone to have extended playing time.
Traditionally, team depth charts are shown as a starting lineup with 2nd string and 3rd string backups. Sometimes, analysts will list the starters and primary key backups. However, about two years ago, I presented a different way to look at things:
1) Star players who are core players
2) Role players who are core players
3) Role players who are situational players
4) Bench players who are secondary backups
This season, the NBA has added a new roster option: 2 two-way players who can split their time with the G-League affiliate (primary role) and 45 days up with the NBA franchise.
Also, injuries alter existing rotations across the league.
Currently, the Cavs have the following rotation:
Star players who are core players: F/G LeBron James, C/F Kevin Love, G Isaiah Thomas
Role players who are core players: G/F J.R. Smith, F/G Jae Crowder, G Dwyane Wade, F Jeff Green, G/F Kyle Korver, C/F Tristan Thompson
Role players who are situational players: F/G Cedi Osman, G Jose Calderon, F/C Channing Frye
Bench players who are secondary backups: C/F Ante Zizic
Two-way players: G London Perrantes
*Injured: G Derrick Rose, G/F Iman Shumpert, G/F John Holland (two-way)
Progressing towards potential playoff rotations will be interesting to say the least. In the past 3 seasons, the team knew their Big 3 when healthy were James, Irving, and Love. Key role players included TT, J.R., Shumpert, Matthew Dellavedova, and Richard Jefferson.
Based on the 1st half of the season and if everyone gets healthy, this is my recommendation for the Cavs' eventual playoff rotation:
Star players who are core players: F/G LeBron James, C/F Kevin Love
Role players who are core players: G Isaiah Thomas, G/F J.R. Smith, G Dwyane Wade, F Jeff Green, G/F Kyle Korver
Role players who are situational players: F/G Jae Crowder, C/F Tristan Thompson, G Jose Calderon, G Derrick Rose, F/G Cedi Osman, G/F Iman Shumpert, F/C Channing Frye
Bench players who are secondary backups: C/F Ante Zizic
Two-way players: G/F John Holland, G London Perrantes
As much as I want IT to be a big-time scorer for the Cavs, I think that the team functions better when LeBron and Love lead the way in scoring. IT can also be a defensive liability, which is especially troublesome when he is not shooting well (similar to Kyrie's play during his time in Cleveland). Wade, Green, and Korver have established themselves as key bench contributors, while J.R.--despite his inconsistencies--remains a clutch shooter and capable wing defender.
Meanwhile, Crowder, TT, Shump, Cedi, Calderon, DRose, and Frye will all have to accept time as situational role players. Of these 7 players, Crowder and TT will most likely see the most minutes because of their defense. Yet, both will see their minutes cut if they hinder the offense. Crowder has been candid in expressing his inability to get settled down in the role Shane Battier filled with LeBron in Miami as a swingman playing extended minutes at power forward. It is quite possible that Green eventually takes Crowder's spot in the starting lineup and Crowder settles down as a defensive specialist off the bench.
If the Cavs are wise and keep Rose's minutes limited until the playoffs so he stays healthy, he can be a big part of a 7-game series when other guys hit scoring slumps. However, like IT, DRose lacks dependable defensive ability. Meanwhile, Shumpert and Osman offer potential help on both sides of the court while Frye will come in only if the Cavs need some 3-point shooting and matchups dictate it. Lastly, Calderon had a very steadying effect on the lineup during the 19-2 stretch. While DRose's ability to score points make him an X-factor down the stretch, Calderon's knack for distributing the ball and not turning it over while making occasional 3's and layups make him another sleeper candidate for key minutes in a 7-game series.
Zizic, Holland, and Perrantes are not expected to play in the playoffs, although Zizic could see a few minutes if the Cavs face a team with a lot of frontcourt size.
Lots of things can happen. Changes may occur for different reasons, including trades. However, if GM Koby Altman keeps the current roster together for the stretch run, I anticipate LeBron and Love to lead the way with IT, Smith, Wade, Green, Korver, Crowder, and TT getting the bulk of the rest of the minutes come playoff time, with DRose and Calderon stepping up at different times as X-factors.
*Of course, I know that Coach Lue may go with this rotation instead:
Star players who are core players: F/G LeBron James, G Isaiah Thomas, C/F Kevin Love
Role players who are core players: G/F J.R. Smith, G Dwyane Wade, F Jeff Green, G/F Kyle Korver, F/G Jae Crowder, C/F Tristan Thompson
Role players who are situational players: G Derrick Rose, G/F Iman Shumpert
Bench players who are secondary backups: G Jose Calderon, F/G Cedi Osman, F/C Channing Frye, C/F Ante Zizic
Two-way players: G/F John Holland, G London Perrantes
In this setup, Coach Lue leans on the same top 9 players, but with more definitive roles. The offense features LeBron, IT, and Love with Wade, Green, and Korver continuing in their current roles as the next top scorers. Smith stays in at shooting guard and Crowder may still end up as a bench defensive specialist backing up LeBron, Smith, and Green. TT remains a key part of the rotation, with DRose and Shump being Coach Lue's top two candidates as situational contributors with inconsistent playoff minutes.
With the trade deadline a month away (February 8th), how the team adjusts or doesn't adjust with IT, TT, DRose, and Shumpert back will help determine if anyone needs to be brought in--and if any of these four players or anyone else ends up getting traded.
Again, a number of analysts expect the Cavs to make a trade for a rim protector. While Clippers center DeAndre Jordan's name keeps coming up in current trade rumors, other candidates may emerge.
For example, some past rumors had linked Nerlens Noel to the Cavs because of his rim protecting skill set, general defensive agility, and sharing agency representation with LeBron, TT, and J.R.
A trade such as Frye and a draft pick (definitely NOT the Nets' 2018 first-round pick!!!) for Noel might make sense for the Mavericks. However, based on NBA contract rules, Noel would have to agree to forfeit his Bird rights for the trade to be possible. In any case, the Cavs would not be able to offer Noel a large contract extension as long as they remain so much over the salary cap. Still, the media has reported extensively about Noel's displeasure with contract negotiations with Dallas last summer, and he has been out recovering from thumb surgery. A fresh start could be in order, and what better way to rejuvenate a temporarily stagnant career than challenging for an NBA championship alongside a generational superstar like LeBron?
If the Cavs are unable to trade for a rim protector, they could pursue another versatile combo forward in the mold of Jeff Green. All of this will be determined over the next four weeks. Stay tuned...