Setting the Cavs Playoff Rotation

Coach Tyronn Lue--much like every Cavs coach since the days of Lenny Wilkens and Mike Fratello--has taken a lot of criticism for juggling the lineup. Fans are concerned that the Cavs do not have a set rotation, a lineup that they roll out day in and day out. The truth is that Lue is trying to do what he needs to do.

Take a look around the league, not just this season, but every season. Even the best teams make changes to their lineup, and they do this throughout the playoffs. 

Contrary to popular opinion in Cleveland, successful NBA basketball does not consist of sending out the same exact lineup every game. As the Cavaliers and Warriors know from last season, there are two obvious reasons for making lineup changes: injuries and matchups. While Cleveland changed its lineup to cover for injuries to Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, Golden State increased and decreased usage of David Lee, Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli, and Marreese Speights--including sitting all four of them--in order to gain advantages against the Cavs and other teams. Other common reasons to modify rotations include slumps and rest.

When it comes down to it, teams typically have:

1. Star players who are core players
2. Role players who are core players
3. Role players who are situational players
4. Bench players who are secondary backups

Currently, the Cavs' rotation looks as follows:

1. LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love
2. Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith, Matthew Dellavedova, Iman Shumpert
3. Timofey Mozgov, Richard Jefferson, Channing Frye
4. Mo Williams, James Jones, Jordan McRae, Sasha Kaun

Since taking over as coach, Lue has pretty much played the top three tiers of players. When Irving and Dellavedova were out early in the season with injuries, Williams was elevated to tier 2. However, he dropped to tier 3 with their return to the lineup and down to tier 4 due to injuries.  

In the playoffs, tier 3 and tier 4 players can be series-changers. 

In last year's Finals, David Lee was a prime example of this. His appearance in a Game 3 loss helped expose the Cavs' issues with mobile post players and interior defense.  

Warriors coach Steve Kerr had his own moment like this in 2003 against the Dallas Mavericks. Having sat the bench as an aging veteran guard, he entered Game 6 of a closely contested series and proceeded to hit four three-pointers in 13 minutes. Instead of the Mavericks forcing a Game 7, the Spurs outscored them 34-9 in the fourth quarter of a closeout Game 6.  

In 2009, the Orlando Magic upset the Cavs in large part because they sat out J.J. Redick, who did not match up well with Cleveland's guards. Courtney Lee took Redick's spot in the lineup and provided the defense needed to slow down the Cavalier offense while Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Mickael Pietrus, and Rafer Alston gave the Cavalier defense endless problems on the perimeter.

Coaches Blatt and Lue have had their troubles in trying to find good chemistry with the Cavs' roster. This season, the Cavs have struggled to put together a consistently good offense. Figuring that they needed to get a good versatile big man who can hit outside shots while still playing solid interior defense, they traded for Frye. Frye has certainly done his part since joining the team. 

However, overall team defense remains a problem. 

• Love and Irving are still improving from being below average defenders. 
• Thompson is learning how to become a standout defender. 
• Dellavedova and Shumpert are trying to stay healthy while fighting off offensive slumps--for Delly, short-term slumps; for Shump, a lengthy slump. 
• James is wearing down. 
• Smith is hustling but is still learning on defense and, as the unofficial enforcer, is a target for refs to make an example of. 
• Mozgov blocks shots but otherwise plays like a small forward in a center's body with a power forward's athleticism--he is not a true rim protector. 
• Jefferson is not the 30+ minutes per game player he was in his prime. 
• Frye has only had one season where he played over 30 minutes per game--and the Cavs are reluctant to sit out the highly paid Love and Thompson in favor of Frye.
• Williams gets worse on defense as he gets older. 
• Jones is a sharpshooter and below average defender.
• Kaun has sat the bench and it is not clear if he has what it takes to play regular minutes in the NBA.
• McRae is young and new and has also sat the bench since joining the Cavs.

Ultimately, Lue is tasked with making sure the Cavs score enough points while playing a championship level of defense. With the Cavs having noticeable deficiencies on both sides of the court, Lue may need to shuffle players in and out of the lineup even more than he already has. As stated previously, there are four main reasons why teams have to change their lineup: injuries, matchups, slumps, and rest. Last season, the circumstances of injuries eliminated difficult decisions with the rotation. Now, Lue will have to make tough calls as he may need to sit out players due to difficult matchups. This pretty much means having to sit out anyone other than LeBron due to matchup problems. 

Furthermore, despite the deficiencies, the Cavs have a deep bench. This means that Lue must be willing to sit out slumping players. Mozgov has taken a lot of criticism this season for his regression from last season. It would have helped to have him sit out for a couple games to catch his breath and learn from watching other guys play. Likewise, giving spot playing time to James Jones and Sasha Kaun would allow the Cavs to evaluate different in-game matchups while giving these two players needed in-game action. 

Based on what has been seen this season, what could the Cavalier rotation look like in the playoffs?:

1. LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love
2. Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith, Matthew Dellavedova, Channing Frye
3. Iman Shumpert, Richard Jefferson, Timofey Mozgov, James Jones
4. Mo Williams, Jordan McRae, Sasha Kaun

Although Shumpert received a pay raise as one of the team's best defenders, he has been in a prolonged slump on offense, shooting under 40% this season (37.6%). Although he only shot 36.0% in the playoffs last season, his offensive value came from ball movement and three-point shooting, where he made 33.8% in the regular season and 35.5% in the playoffs. He is down to 30.8% on threes this season. Moreover, he has not been a consistently good defender this season. If he struggles, Lue needs to be willing to sit him out. 

Meanwhile, Jefferson has been overlooked due to his age, but he has delivered more consistently in the areas where Shumpert normally excels. Jefferson has shot 46.9% overall and 40.0% on threes. He has played more consistently on defense than Shumpert this season. At 6'7", 233 lb, Jefferson has more height and has shown more strength on defense. If Shumpert struggles in the playoffs, Jefferson is ready to step in and should take on more minutes. Jefferson is certainly capable of being a core role player down the stretch.

Regarding the post, Frye should get elevated to the third big man. His inside-outside versatility, consistency, and strong state of mind make him an ideal fit with Love, Thompson, and James getting the rest of the minutes at power forward and center. 

This means that Mozgov drops down to being a truly situational player. If the other team has a tall lumbering center, Mozgov plays. Otherwise, he should sit. 

In addition, Jones gets the nod above Williams based on health and the rest of the Cavs' personnel. Williams has battled injuries since January. He played much better as a starter with lots of minutes than as a role player with limited minutes, with his defense looking especially porous off the bench. On the other hand, Jones will always be a sharpshooter. His subpar defense keeps him on the bench, but his outside shooting gives Lue an extra option should the Cavs need to score a few quick baskets. 

Lastly, McRae and Kaun are wild cards off the bench. McRae established himself as a wing scorer and defender in the D-League and could come out of nowhere to provide extra wing help in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Kaun earned the reputation for being a solid interior defender during his international career. Should the other Cavalier big men struggle with any particular inside scorers, Kaun could come out of nowhere to be the guy who slows him down, or at the very least, makes use of his six personal fouls each game.