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NBA Finals: Game 4 Pregame Notes

The Cavaliers take a 2-1 lead heading into Game 4 tonight. Coach Steve Kerr and the Warriors made some effective adjustments in the 2nd half of Game 3 and look to build on that tonight. Here are some notes heading into the game:
  • Stephen Curry
    • Cavaliers: The Cavs have exposed Curry's experience at the point guard position. Curry has strong dribbling skills, but the Cavs have honed in on disrupting his passing. The Warriors live on ball movement and player movement--lots of picks, cuts, and passes. Cleveland's defense has slowed Golden State's pace down to 89.7 (approximate possessions per game) from 98.3 during the regular season and 91.5, 91.5, and 98.1 in the previous 3 rounds of the playoffs. In turn, they have pressured Curry into committing 5.3 turnovers per game, which is much higher than his 3.1 TOPG during the regular season. His errant behind-the-back pass in the 4th quarter of Game 3 reflected his frustration in trying to run the offense against the observant Cleveland defense.
    • Warriors: Look for the Warriors to take the ball out of Curry's hands and let him roam around more. Think of Reggie Miller's style of play: running around the court, going around picks, and cutting all over the place. This will allow him to focus more on scoring points while worrying less on running the offense. In Curry's place, Shaun Livingston would be a prime candidate to run the offense, with Andre Iguodala already sharing the role in the first 3 games. Draymond Green has also helped passing at the top of the 3 point arc but will be physically limited by back spasms tonight.
  • David Lee
    • Warriors: David Lee is a former All-Star whose offensive game is quite similar to Tristan Thompson. Lee likes to run 2-man plays (pick and roll, pick and fade/curl/slip, give and go) and thrives on scoring off of offensive rebounds. His defense is not well-respected, but his style of play enables him to understand the rebounding ability of TT and Timofey Mozgov. There is a good chance Lee either starts or plays in the 1st quarter to help boost the Warriors' offense while challenging the Cavs' defense.
    • Cavaliers: Mozgov had some trouble dealing with Lee on both sides of the court during Game 3. TT is a much more natural matchup for him. Other guys who could draw Lee's assignment on defense include LeBron James, Shawn Marion, Kendrick Perkins, and Brendan Haywood. However, it will probably mainly be TT, Mozgov, and James handling Lee.
  • Timofey Mozgov
    • Cavaliers: Mozgov scored 16 and 17 points in the first 2 games, followed by only 6 in Game 3. When he matches up with Festus Ezeli, he can score. Andrew Bogut and Green have had some trouble guarding Mozgov, but Lee helped limit Mozgov's offensive effectiveness in Game 3. Mozgov remains a scoring threat depending on matchups, but his defense will be key in Game 4. He had 4 blocks in Game 3.
    • Warriors: Bogut will be matched up with Mozgov again at the start of Game 4. Bogut is a tough, rugged defender who was only in foul trouble during Game 2. Bogut, Ezeli, Green, and Lee will likely all have time guarding Mozgov tonight. The Warriors can help limit Mozgov's minutes by going with a small lineup, playing Lee, Green, or Marreese Speights at center.
  • The Benches
    • Warriors: Golden State would be well-served to move Harrison Barnes to the bench. Barnes has not been able to guard James effectively and has not found much of an offensive rhythm with the slowdown of the offense. Barnes would give the bench a perimeter scoring option against Cleveland's reserves. He matches up much better with James Jones and Mike Miller. With Barnes on the bench, David Lee and/or Andre Iguodala could step into the starting lineup and match up with James and TT.

      In the post, Speights scored 8 points in Game 1, 0 in Game 2, and did not play in Game 3. His pick and pop jumpshooting has been reminiscent of David West and would be worth turning to in Game 4.

      Meanwhile, Livingston should get some time at point guard, where he can take pressure off of Curry in running the Warriors' offense. He is not an aggressive scorer. With Kyrie Irving out, he would be matching up with Matthew Dellavedova. Although Dellavedova can be quick, he does not have the lightning fast dribble and drive moves that Irving has, protecting Livingston from his past knee problems.

      While the announcers have hyped up Leandro Barbosa's offense, the stats show that he has scored 2, 5, and 4 points in the first 3 games. He is a deadly spot-up 3-point shooter, so he should continue in a non-point guard role off the bench.

      Overall, if the Warriors want to force a faster tempo today, they can play 11 deep on their roster.
    • Cavaliers: J.R. Smith and Jones remain the Cavs' top 2 options off the bench. They both bring strong perimeter shooting. With Iman Shumpert battling shoulder pain and Dellavedova dealing with dehydration, Miller may see more time. Rookie Joe Harris would also be a sharpshooter with fresh legs should Coach David Blatt call his number off the bench.

      In the post, TT has been playing 43.6 minutes per game. Should he have any issues with foul trouble or fatigue, the Cavs' first option is to play James as a point forward at power forward. Jones has gotten a couple minutes on some plays at power forward. However, Shawn Marion would be the best substitute matchup off the bench should Green and Lee get extended minutes tonight. If TT and Mozgov both sit, James would be a point center as the first option, with Kendrick Perkins and Brendan Haywood as backup options against Bogut and Ezeli and Marion as a matchup for Green and Lee.
  • Best Case Scenario
    • Warriors: They start a lineup of Curry, Klay Thompson, Iguodala, Lee, and Bogut. Iguodala and Livingston run their offense with Curry playing like Reggie Miller, running off of multiple screens and not handling the ball. Speights and Barbosa catch fire off the bench. The pace picks up enough that they can score at least 100 points.
    • Cavaliers: They stay the course and slow down the pace. They are a team that can win when play slows down and plays break down. James again scores around 40 points with at least 10 rebounds, 10 assists, 3 steals, and 2 blocks. All perimeter shooters shoot respectably, with J.R. Smith and James Jones both catching fire. Meanwhile, TT and Mozgov dominate inside play. 

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