In a lockout-shortened NBA season, it can be said that preseason predictions are likely easier to make than during a standard season with a full offseason and preseason. As teams have less time to make adjustments and changes to their rosters, strategies, tactics, and operations, they end up making fewer adjustments than during a full schedule. As analysts and fans, the main questions we have are about coaching stability, team chemistry, and internal development & improvement. In essence, have we been correct in our observations over the past few months & years and are we correct now?
The above picture shows my personal preseason projections for the 30 NBA teams for 2011-2012. What I did was place the teams into 4 groups: top-tier championship contenders, the next best, teams challenging for a playoff spot but missing, and teams still rebuilding.
My picks as NBA championship favorites were (in random order) the Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, and San Antonio Spurs. In evaluating preseason team chemistry, all 7 of these teams were ranked in the top 10. Recently, ESPN.com's John Hollinger listed these 7 teams and the Los Angeles Lakers as his championship contenders. Similarly, ESPN.com's Marc Stein listed 6 of my contenders (all but the Mavericks) and the Lakers as his championship contenders.
Meanwhile, my other preseason playoff picks were (in random order) the Indiana Pacers, Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Portland Trail Blazers, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, and Los Angeles Clippers. I believed these teams would beat out teams such as the Milwaukee Bucks, Houston Rockets, and Denver Nuggets for playoff spots. In a clear head-to-head matchup prediction, I thought that a 5th seeded Hawks team would defeat a 4th seeded Pacers team in the first round. As it stands, the Hawks are currently ranked 5th in the East, but the Pacers are ranked 3rd--meaning they will not meet as opponents in the first round of the playoffs.
Looking at the current standings, 7 of my predicted Eastern Conference playoff teams have qualified for the playoffs, with my 8th team--the 8th place 76ers--3 games ahead of the 9th place Bucks with only 4 regular season games remaining. The Cavaliers had stayed in the playoff race until the trade deadline last month while the Bobcats were really only competitive in the first month of the season, as injuries limited the availability of both teams' best players. Still, picking 8 out of 8 playoff teams this year was nice to do, but was also a bit easier to do because of the lockout.
In the Western Conference, 6 of my predicted playoff teams have clinched playoff berths. While the Suns have climbed into an 8th place tie with the Utah Jazz, the Trail Blazers fell apart midseason, fired head coach Nate McMillan, traded a few players, and are now out of the playoff race. The Denver Nuggets have stayed competitive and are currently in 7th place while the Houston Rockets are close by in 10th place. However, the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings have had disappointing seasons and find themselves at the bottom of the West. While the Warriors traded cornerstone Monta Ellis, the Kings fired head coach Paul Westphal and waived young forward/center J.J. Hickson. Here, picking 6 or 7 out of 8 playoff teams this year was also nice to do, but again was also easier to do because of the lockout. With a full offseason, preseason, and regular season in 2012-2013, predictions like mine will likely be less accurate next season.
In the final week of the regular season, the playoff picture is clearing up. The 2012 NBA Playoffs should be pretty exciting, as first-round seeding could dictate some tough first-round matchups for higher seeds--such as the Heat vs. the Knicks and the Lakers vs. the defending champion Mavericks. Over the years, some analysts and fans have suspected that some teams occasionally alter season closeout strategies in order to set up certain perceived favorable first-round matchups--even if this means losing a few games down the stretch.
Interestingly enough, the NBA is testing a new playoff format in its NBA Development League where the top teams pick their opponents. If brought to the NBA, this would add a new dynamic to overall regular season effort and season closeout. Ultimately, the most successful regular season teams would be rewarded for their excellence by choosing their first-round opponents and determining the rest of the playoff picture (i.e. future round matchups based on chosen first-round seeding). However, as has been seen so far in this year's D-League playoffs, 2 of the 4 lower seeds actually upset higher seeds, so being able to pick favorable opponents is not as easily as it looks.
Regardless of playoff format and first-round opponents, teams should aim to enter the playoffs playing good basketball with a relatively healthy roster. Both are essential to NBA playoff success. While last year's Mavericks were able to win the championship without starting shooting guard Caron Butler, teams such as the Celtics have fallen in the playoffs in recent years when playing without key players. In the Celtics' case, they had lost Kevin Garnett for the rest of the season and then lost Leon Powe during the first round of the 2009 playoffs.
Until the regular season ends on Thursday, playoff projections can be seen on ESPN.com. After playoff rosters are set on Friday, the 2012 NBA Playoffs begin next Saturday. Updates to NBA Team Chemistry Rankings and notes for the first-round matchups will be provided at that time. Until then, enjoy the last week of the 2011-2012 NBA regular season!
The above picture shows my personal preseason projections for the 30 NBA teams for 2011-2012. What I did was place the teams into 4 groups: top-tier championship contenders, the next best, teams challenging for a playoff spot but missing, and teams still rebuilding.
My picks as NBA championship favorites were (in random order) the Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, and San Antonio Spurs. In evaluating preseason team chemistry, all 7 of these teams were ranked in the top 10. Recently, ESPN.com's John Hollinger listed these 7 teams and the Los Angeles Lakers as his championship contenders. Similarly, ESPN.com's Marc Stein listed 6 of my contenders (all but the Mavericks) and the Lakers as his championship contenders.
Meanwhile, my other preseason playoff picks were (in random order) the Indiana Pacers, Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Portland Trail Blazers, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, and Los Angeles Clippers. I believed these teams would beat out teams such as the Milwaukee Bucks, Houston Rockets, and Denver Nuggets for playoff spots. In a clear head-to-head matchup prediction, I thought that a 5th seeded Hawks team would defeat a 4th seeded Pacers team in the first round. As it stands, the Hawks are currently ranked 5th in the East, but the Pacers are ranked 3rd--meaning they will not meet as opponents in the first round of the playoffs.
Looking at the current standings, 7 of my predicted Eastern Conference playoff teams have qualified for the playoffs, with my 8th team--the 8th place 76ers--3 games ahead of the 9th place Bucks with only 4 regular season games remaining. The Cavaliers had stayed in the playoff race until the trade deadline last month while the Bobcats were really only competitive in the first month of the season, as injuries limited the availability of both teams' best players. Still, picking 8 out of 8 playoff teams this year was nice to do, but was also a bit easier to do because of the lockout.
In the Western Conference, 6 of my predicted playoff teams have clinched playoff berths. While the Suns have climbed into an 8th place tie with the Utah Jazz, the Trail Blazers fell apart midseason, fired head coach Nate McMillan, traded a few players, and are now out of the playoff race. The Denver Nuggets have stayed competitive and are currently in 7th place while the Houston Rockets are close by in 10th place. However, the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings have had disappointing seasons and find themselves at the bottom of the West. While the Warriors traded cornerstone Monta Ellis, the Kings fired head coach Paul Westphal and waived young forward/center J.J. Hickson. Here, picking 6 or 7 out of 8 playoff teams this year was also nice to do, but again was also easier to do because of the lockout. With a full offseason, preseason, and regular season in 2012-2013, predictions like mine will likely be less accurate next season.
In the final week of the regular season, the playoff picture is clearing up. The 2012 NBA Playoffs should be pretty exciting, as first-round seeding could dictate some tough first-round matchups for higher seeds--such as the Heat vs. the Knicks and the Lakers vs. the defending champion Mavericks. Over the years, some analysts and fans have suspected that some teams occasionally alter season closeout strategies in order to set up certain perceived favorable first-round matchups--even if this means losing a few games down the stretch.
Interestingly enough, the NBA is testing a new playoff format in its NBA Development League where the top teams pick their opponents. If brought to the NBA, this would add a new dynamic to overall regular season effort and season closeout. Ultimately, the most successful regular season teams would be rewarded for their excellence by choosing their first-round opponents and determining the rest of the playoff picture (i.e. future round matchups based on chosen first-round seeding). However, as has been seen so far in this year's D-League playoffs, 2 of the 4 lower seeds actually upset higher seeds, so being able to pick favorable opponents is not as easily as it looks.
Regardless of playoff format and first-round opponents, teams should aim to enter the playoffs playing good basketball with a relatively healthy roster. Both are essential to NBA playoff success. While last year's Mavericks were able to win the championship without starting shooting guard Caron Butler, teams such as the Celtics have fallen in the playoffs in recent years when playing without key players. In the Celtics' case, they had lost Kevin Garnett for the rest of the season and then lost Leon Powe during the first round of the 2009 playoffs.
Until the regular season ends on Thursday, playoff projections can be seen on ESPN.com. After playoff rosters are set on Friday, the 2012 NBA Playoffs begin next Saturday. Updates to NBA Team Chemistry Rankings and notes for the first-round matchups will be provided at that time. Until then, enjoy the last week of the 2011-2012 NBA regular season!