Much credit has been given to the Boston Celtics this season. At 66-16 (.805 winning percentage), the Celtics put together the best record in the NBA. This was 21 games better than the Cleveland Cavaliers, who went 45-37 (.549) during the regular season. The Celtics were praised on both ends of the court, and their Big Three of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett had lived up to their hype. However, a match-up with the Cavs has proven to be somewhat overwhelming thus far for the Celtics.
During the regular season, the Boston Celtics outscored their opponents 100.5 points per game to 90.3 points per game. This included 19.6 PPG from Paul Pierce, 18.8 PPG from Kevin Garnett, and 17.4 PPG from Ray Allen. Their combined average of 55.8 PPG served as 55.5% of the team's scoring. This carried into the first round of the playoffs, as Boston outscored Atlanta 99.1 PPG to 87.1 PPG. In that series, Garnett led the way with 21.0 PPG, followed by Pierce with 18.0 PPG and Allen with 16.1 PPG (combined 55.6% of team's scoring). After eliminating the Hawks, the Big Three's career playoff scoring averages stood as follows: Pierce and Allen each held a 23.5 PPG mark in 44 playoff games, while Garnett stood at 22.1 PPG in 54 playoff games.
While Garnett has kept near his season scoring average in the second round at 18.3 PPG, both Pierce and Allen have struggled to score against the Cavaliers. Pierce stands at 12.5 PPG in the series, which is a 36.2% drop from his season scoring average and a 46.8% decrease in his career playoff average prior to the series. Allen has had even more trouble, providing a modest 10.3 PPG in 4 games against the Cavaliers. This is a 40.8% dip from his season scoring average and a staggering 56.2% drop from his career playoff average before this series. Thus, the Cavaliers have managed to keep the Big Three in check, with the two perimeter players relying on KG to carry the load.
In the series, the Cavaliers are outscoring the Celtics 85.3 to 81.5 PPG. This is a nice change for Cleveland, as they had actually been outscored by the opposition in the regular season (96.4 PPG for Cleveland versus 96.7 from the opposition) despite being 8 games over .500. While both teams shot well from behind the 3-point arc this season (BOS .381; CLE .358) and in the first round (both .382 on 50-131 3PTFG), the Cavs have shot a respectable .328 from downtown while holding the Celtics to .259. Assists and turnovers have also gone in the Cavaliers' favor. Despite scoring nearly 15 points fewer per game in this round and having averaged fewer assists per game than the opponents in the regular season (20.0 APG vs. 21.0 APG), Cleveland has averaged 1.5 more assists (22.5 APG) than they did in the regular season and 4.5 more than Boston (18.0 APG). Concerning turnovers, the Cavaliers have reduced their 14.0 TOPG to 13.0 while forcing Boston into 13.8 TOPG. This is much better than the Hawks had fared in the first round, when the Celtics held a decisive edge in protecting the ball, averaging more than 5 turnovers fewer than the Hawks per game (10.6 vs. 15.9). The Celtics had also protected the ball better than their opponents all season (15.2 vs. 16.0).
Although Boston showed that they can stop the pick and roll that gave Detroit problems last postseason, they have been unable to counter Cleveland's adjustments in Games 3 and 4. The Cavalier offense has been much more fluent the past couple games, with numerous players contributing to the Cavalier scoring front. In doing so, the Cavaliers are showing that they have a deeper bench/roster. Furthermore, they are bringing the Celtics defense back down to earth. Unlike the Pistons, who have a great combination of team defense and individual defense, the Celtics have a great combination of coaching and team unity. That is, Assistant Coach Tom Thibodeau has proven to be one of the current defensive masterminds in the NBA, while the Celtics--with their Big Three leading the way--are hungry to win. While Detroit's defense is less likely to break down due to the individual credibility of their defenders, Boston depends on its team defense. When Boston's defense is attacked at weak points, it collapses.
Game 5 will be anyone's game. Boston is undefeated at home this postseason (6-0). On the other hand, in the past 3 years, Cleveland has won 2 Game 5's on the road in Detroit while also clinching 4 of their 5 series wins on the road. The Cavs need to keep the defensive pressure on the Big Three--play Allen physically, make Pierce put the ball on the floor, and play Garnett straight up. They also need to watch Boston's role players' tendencies on offense. They have focused on the fact that Rajon Rondo is a slasher that is still weak from the perimeter. Now, they must realize that Leon Powe is quick on the boards, Kendrick Perkins is strong inside, James Posey is a good spot-up shooter and cutter with declining dribbling skills, Sam Cassell likes to post up and hit turnaround jumpshots, and P.J. Brown can consistently hit shots from 12 feet to 15 feet deep from either corner. If Glen Davis is in, he likes to combine raw strength with deceptive quickness (although on defense he is having trouble keeping up with the Cavaliers' big men). In actuality, Boston's offense is quite simple when they are unable to score lots of points off turnovers. As is, the Cavaliers look poise to take command of this series, although the desire of the Celtics and the spirit of the Boston fans will make the upcoming game a dogfight and an adventure.
During the regular season, the Boston Celtics outscored their opponents 100.5 points per game to 90.3 points per game. This included 19.6 PPG from Paul Pierce, 18.8 PPG from Kevin Garnett, and 17.4 PPG from Ray Allen. Their combined average of 55.8 PPG served as 55.5% of the team's scoring. This carried into the first round of the playoffs, as Boston outscored Atlanta 99.1 PPG to 87.1 PPG. In that series, Garnett led the way with 21.0 PPG, followed by Pierce with 18.0 PPG and Allen with 16.1 PPG (combined 55.6% of team's scoring). After eliminating the Hawks, the Big Three's career playoff scoring averages stood as follows: Pierce and Allen each held a 23.5 PPG mark in 44 playoff games, while Garnett stood at 22.1 PPG in 54 playoff games.
While Garnett has kept near his season scoring average in the second round at 18.3 PPG, both Pierce and Allen have struggled to score against the Cavaliers. Pierce stands at 12.5 PPG in the series, which is a 36.2% drop from his season scoring average and a 46.8% decrease in his career playoff average prior to the series. Allen has had even more trouble, providing a modest 10.3 PPG in 4 games against the Cavaliers. This is a 40.8% dip from his season scoring average and a staggering 56.2% drop from his career playoff average before this series. Thus, the Cavaliers have managed to keep the Big Three in check, with the two perimeter players relying on KG to carry the load.
In the series, the Cavaliers are outscoring the Celtics 85.3 to 81.5 PPG. This is a nice change for Cleveland, as they had actually been outscored by the opposition in the regular season (96.4 PPG for Cleveland versus 96.7 from the opposition) despite being 8 games over .500. While both teams shot well from behind the 3-point arc this season (BOS .381; CLE .358) and in the first round (both .382 on 50-131 3PTFG), the Cavs have shot a respectable .328 from downtown while holding the Celtics to .259. Assists and turnovers have also gone in the Cavaliers' favor. Despite scoring nearly 15 points fewer per game in this round and having averaged fewer assists per game than the opponents in the regular season (20.0 APG vs. 21.0 APG), Cleveland has averaged 1.5 more assists (22.5 APG) than they did in the regular season and 4.5 more than Boston (18.0 APG). Concerning turnovers, the Cavaliers have reduced their 14.0 TOPG to 13.0 while forcing Boston into 13.8 TOPG. This is much better than the Hawks had fared in the first round, when the Celtics held a decisive edge in protecting the ball, averaging more than 5 turnovers fewer than the Hawks per game (10.6 vs. 15.9). The Celtics had also protected the ball better than their opponents all season (15.2 vs. 16.0).
Although Boston showed that they can stop the pick and roll that gave Detroit problems last postseason, they have been unable to counter Cleveland's adjustments in Games 3 and 4. The Cavalier offense has been much more fluent the past couple games, with numerous players contributing to the Cavalier scoring front. In doing so, the Cavaliers are showing that they have a deeper bench/roster. Furthermore, they are bringing the Celtics defense back down to earth. Unlike the Pistons, who have a great combination of team defense and individual defense, the Celtics have a great combination of coaching and team unity. That is, Assistant Coach Tom Thibodeau has proven to be one of the current defensive masterminds in the NBA, while the Celtics--with their Big Three leading the way--are hungry to win. While Detroit's defense is less likely to break down due to the individual credibility of their defenders, Boston depends on its team defense. When Boston's defense is attacked at weak points, it collapses.
Game 5 will be anyone's game. Boston is undefeated at home this postseason (6-0). On the other hand, in the past 3 years, Cleveland has won 2 Game 5's on the road in Detroit while also clinching 4 of their 5 series wins on the road. The Cavs need to keep the defensive pressure on the Big Three--play Allen physically, make Pierce put the ball on the floor, and play Garnett straight up. They also need to watch Boston's role players' tendencies on offense. They have focused on the fact that Rajon Rondo is a slasher that is still weak from the perimeter. Now, they must realize that Leon Powe is quick on the boards, Kendrick Perkins is strong inside, James Posey is a good spot-up shooter and cutter with declining dribbling skills, Sam Cassell likes to post up and hit turnaround jumpshots, and P.J. Brown can consistently hit shots from 12 feet to 15 feet deep from either corner. If Glen Davis is in, he likes to combine raw strength with deceptive quickness (although on defense he is having trouble keeping up with the Cavaliers' big men). In actuality, Boston's offense is quite simple when they are unable to score lots of points off turnovers. As is, the Cavaliers look poise to take command of this series, although the desire of the Celtics and the spirit of the Boston fans will make the upcoming game a dogfight and an adventure.